Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
